Japan’s Number of New Adults in 2026 Remains Near Record Low Amid Declining Birthrate

Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced new population estimates on January 31, revealing that the number of people turning 18 years old as of January 1, 2026, will be approximately 1.09 million. This figure is unchanged from 2025 and represents the second-lowest level on record since statistics were first compiled in 1968.

The lowest number of new adults was recorded in 2024, when the total fell to 1.06 million. Together, these figures highlight the continued impact of Japan’s long-term declining birthrate, a demographic challenge with wide-ranging social and economic implications.

Ongoing Decline in Youth Population

Japan has experienced a steady decrease in its younger population for decades, driven by low birth rates, later marriages, and changing social structures. The number of new adults has now remained near historic lows for three consecutive years, underscoring the difficulty of reversing this trend despite government efforts.

A shrinking youth population is expected to affect multiple sectors, including education, labor markets, and social security systems, as fewer young people enter adulthood each year.

Zodiac Year Data Highlights Demographic Shifts

The population estimates also include data by Chinese zodiac birth years. According to the ministry, the number of people born in the Year of the Horse stands at approximately 9.4 million, the lowest among the 12 zodiac signs.

This reflects historically lower birth rates during certain zodiac years, particularly the Year of the Horse, which has traditionally been associated with a decline in births due to cultural beliefs.

Implications for Japan’s Future

The continued decline in the number of young adults raises concerns about Japan’s future workforce and economic sustainability. With fewer people entering working age, policymakers face increasing pressure to address labor shortages, promote workforce participation, and reassess immigration and family support policies.

As Japan’s demographic structure continues to shift, population data such as these serve as an important indicator of the challenges the country will face in the coming decades.